Moods have a huge impact on our judgments. Emotions also impact how accurate we store the information perceived. We might perhaps have better memory of the day a historical figure or a popular figure died that left a huge impact on the country then of the day that we carried out our routine daily tasks, like a mundane bus ride to work. Due the higher level of emotions felt our memories might be formed more accurately.Moods may even be perceived as the filter we use to view the issue at hand or the person in question of judgment. If an individual is happy or good mood they may perceive the things happening at that point time as fair, good and reasonable. If that same person is presented with a similar situation or a person that they took to with a friendly and polite/reasonable behavior, this time around they are in a bad or foul mood then they may be rejecting or not be satisfied with it due to their bad mood. Therefore, a memory they formed, with the help of the creativity, when they were in a bad mood will be downplayed if it’s a good thing and magnified it’s a bad one, both of which failing to give an accurate evaluation of what really happened but rather suited to be consistent with how the person was feeling at that point of time.
A person ignoring the fact that they can be ignorant is what leads to this bias. Based on an article from psychology today on overconfidence effect, it may even be possible for people who are smarter to be overconfident as they may feel that they are more knowledgeable therefore are more skilled to make the accurate prediction.
The feeling that one has that they have a larger portion of knowledge on a certain situation or subject may leave the individual feeling overconfident therefore overlooking some details in decision making and thus believing they did a better then what they did in actual reality, when this is formed as a memory it is inaccurate. This bias helps the individual use their creativity to alter the memory to be consistent with their thought of being smart therefore they are capable of making better predictions, lesser likely to make mistakes as they are having smarter thoughts.
This refers to a person interpreting the information they are receiving in favor to their previously existing opinions and beliefs about something. The individual then seeks evidence to back up their existing stance on a subject or a person thus discounting the facts or evidence that may proof their beliefs to be wrong or inaccurate, which constructs the memory to be inaccurate to be consistent with what they already believe in.
Probably the most devastating tragedy that happened due to overconfidence thinking happened on April 14th, 1912. The day the Titanic sunk, over 1503 people died and 705 people survived. The main cause of the ship sinking was that it hit an iceberg on a night that the sea was calm, and moon was no out. With their knowledge on the route they would be taking, cruising through the Atlantic, they should have prepared themselves to look far into the distance and been prepared to take warning messages when going through a dangerous location, instead the communication channels were used for passengers’ calls. Considering the fact that it took 2 years and 3000 men to build the Titanic, one would not even imagine the ship being taken down by an iceberg that one quarter it`s size and the opening it left for water to sip through was 12 feet. The phrase that “God himself could not sink this ship” screams their level of overconfidence which claimed so many lives. The overconfidence built on how the big the scale was on this luxurious ship, that was one of the most talked about news, was overshadowed many safety concerns and some alarming warnings that should have been acted on but missed out on.