Non Traditional Security Threats to Pakistan

Published: 2021-09-13 13:20:09
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Category: Asia

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Regional Factor

Pakistan’s security concerns have not been alleviated following the end of the cold war. The absence of any meaningful threat from the western border is a heartening development, but the environments in South Asia have now grown more dangerous with the erosion of the discipline and restraint that super powers competition exercised on world rivalries. The global setting has altered radically, but the enmity with India remains a constant. Pakistan today has every reason to feel apprehensive. The quality and quantity of arms that India has acquired have reached an unprecedented level. The ability of the Indian armed forces to project power far beyond the country’s borders has increased substantially.
The expansion of the Indian Navy, establishment of Indian Far Eastern Command (Andaman-Nicobar Islands), growing Indo Israeli ties with their negative focus on Pakistan and its warming relations with the United States proves that she desires to balance China and act as a local leviathan.
The Indo-US strategic partnership would make it easier for India to establish security links with the American allies in Asia and the Pacific, i.e., Australia, South Korea and Japan. These relations would increase India’s diplomatic leverage in international politics and provide her an opportunity to accomplish her goals with the support of the international community. At the same time, these developments would present serious diplomatic and economic challenges to Pakistan.
Meanwhile, divergence of economic interests has resulted in a relative cooling of traditionally warm ties between Pakistan and Iran, a situation which could be exploited by powers inimical to the interests of both countries.
Presence of Extra Regional Forces (ERF)
The ERF in the South Asia of concern to Pakistan include US dominated naval coalition in North Arabian Sea and US ground forces/ISAF in Afghanistan. The US forces in Afghanistan consist of 18000 troops, while NATO led ISAF constitute 9200 troops. The allied ships are deployed in Arabian Sea with a purpose to support war on terrorism. Besides logistic support to ISAF and US forces in Afghanistan they monitor all naval vessels moving in international waters or inside Pakistan’s maritime limits . However, to keep an eye on the activities of “Coalition Maritime Campaign Plan” (CMCP), Pakistani Naval units are participating in CMCP and performing following duties :-

Security of Escort.
Maritime Interdiction Operation.
Aerial Surveillance.
Boarding of Merchant Ships.

The present status as coalition member enables Pakistan to monitor Indian shipping besides enhancing overall surveillance capability. However, she has joined the collation under following conditions:-

Pakistan’s forces would be available to her when required.
Pakistan will not take part in any operation against any regional country.
Interdiction in territorial waters will be conducted by Pakistan Navy.

Sub Conventional Military Threats
Subversion is still a potential rather than an active threat. Threats in the scenario under discussion may be more or less traditional ones, but there are chances of increased intensity in them. Some of the forms of potential threats would be:-

Espionage and penetration in all areas of interest like defence, foreign affairs, science/technology, economy development programmes, education and politics.
Propaganda, disinformation campaigns, subversion, terrorism, psychological warfare, assassinations, blackmail, bribes, coercion and intimidation.
Subverting the minds of educated lot through lectures, films, seminars, and by sponsoring exchange programmes for scientists, scholars and intellectual.
Terrorism and sabotage through political support action against an existing government to bring into power a person or a party of their own choice.

Indian Cyber Threat
India started modernizing and re-shaping her military instruments immediately after the 1962 conflict with China and laid great emphasis on acquiring a potent capability in the modern warfare achieving tremendous success. Indian dominance in computer software and hardware manufacture and availability of her experts all over the world, especially in countries of interest to Pakistan i.e, United State/Western countries and Middle East, provide her with a cutting edge. United States software experts discovered a cyber scandal where some software backdoors were intentionally left open by Indian software experts to be exploited later. Indian present share of software export in the international market is approximately to two billion United State Dollars, amply reflects their current standing and potential in the computer related fields. Indian Cyber threat in the near future can be in any of the following form:-

Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) through non-nuclear means to disrupt communication and other electronic systems at various sites.
Unauthorized access of computer systems to obtain or alter sensitive information.
Infection of computer viruses into computer networks, exchanges, weapons systems and other computer based systems.
Implementation of logic bombs to introduce time activated viruses in the computer systems without physical access.
Introduction of Microbes to eat away chips and insulating material to cause long term degradation and ultimate failure of electronic and computer systems.
Insertion of booby trapped computer chips into weapon system by manufacture. Everything will works well but warhead will not explode.
Indians expertise in software technology and its vulnerabilities of hacking capabilities renders her the potential to enter or break into our civil as well as military computer systems.

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